Pillar 2 of 4

Permanence

A tonne of CO₂ avoided for one year is not the same as a tonne stored for a thousand. Permanence measures how durable a credit's climate benefit really is.

What it is

Permanence is the expected duration that emissions reductions or removals will be maintained. It covers physical reversal risk (fire, drought, pests, equipment failure) and intentional reversal risk (land-use change, project abandonment).

Modern frameworks express durability in tiers: short-term (decades), long-term (centuries) and geological (millennia).

Why it matters

If forest carbon burns down in year 30, the atmospheric benefit is reversed — but the buyer has long since claimed the offset. Without robust permanence safeguards, voluntary credits can systematically over-promise.

Buyers with science-based targets are increasingly steering toward higher-durability removals, while pricing nature-based credits separately.

How we assess it

Buffer pool coverage

What % of issued credits are held in a non-tradable buffer to compensate for reversals; we benchmark against VCS AFOLU norms (10–60%).

Risk rating

We map the project's documented risks (natural, financial, social, regulatory) into a 0–100 reversal-risk score.

Monitoring frequency

Remote-sensing cadence (annual minimum, ideally quarterly for forestry) and ground-truth verification intervals.

Durability tier

Each credit is tagged short-term (≤100 yr), long-term (100–1,000 yr) or geological (>1,000 yr) based on the storage medium.

Standards we recognise
  • VCS AFOLU Non-Permanence Risk Tool
    The buffer-pool methodology underpinning all Verra forestry, ARR and IFM credits.
  • Puro Standard — Methodology suite
    Engineered removals (biochar, BiCRS, geologically stored CO₂) with explicit durability tiers.
  • ART TREES — Reversal Risk Buffer
    Jurisdictional REDD+ buffer-pool framework used by LEAF Coalition buyers.
  • ICVCM CCP — Permanence
    Independent integrity criteria requiring monitoring, compensation and durability disclosure.
Red flags we look for
  • Buffer pool below 10% for AFOLU projects.
  • No documented compensation mechanism if reversals exceed buffer.
  • Monitoring intervals longer than 5 years for nature-based projects.
  • Durability claims unsupported by storage chemistry or land tenure.
  • Single-developer buffer (no pooled risk-sharing across projects).
Further reading